Monkeypox: a very low case fatality rate

Monkeypox: a very low case fatality rate

#Monkeypox #case #fatality #rate

Paris, Monday, August 8, 2022 – After three months of the epidemic, experts estimate that the case fatality rate of the monkeypox virus currently in circulation is less than 0.05%.

Between July 28 and August 1, five monkeypox-infected people aged 22 to 45 years died worldwide (two in Spain, one in India, one in Peru, and one in Brazil), raising the death toll from the epidemic to 10. Investigations are still needed to determine whether monkeypox was actually the direct cause of death for these five people.

We already know that the Spanish and Indian cases suffered from encephalitis, a complication that can be caused by monkeypox. In contrast, the Brazilian patient suffered from “serious comorbidities”while the Peruvian victim had an untreated HIV infection, suggesting that monkeypox may be only an incidental cause of his death.

1% case fatality in Africa, but only 0.05% in the West

This series of reported deaths raises questions about the case fatality rate of the virus and reassures that the current epidemic is causing a significant number of deaths worldwide. On July 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) indicated that it expected “more deaths” due to the spread of the disease.

In Africa, where monkeypox is endemic, the case fatality rate for the virus is between 3 and 6%. But while the Congo strain has a case fatality rate of 10%, that of the West African strain, the source of the current epidemic in the West, is only 1%.

“We do not know to what extent this rate is transposable to us, our health systems are very different from those of the affected countries” warns infectious disease specialist Paul Loubet.

In fact, a better health system but also a greater detection logically reduces the mortality rate. “Now we have a large sample size and the fatality rate for this year is 0.05% according to the reported figures” says Chloe Orkin, an AIDS expert and lead author of the largest monkeypox study (528 cases studied) published July 21 in the New England Journal of Medicine.

With 5 deaths out of 27,875 confirmed cases outside of Africa, the fatality rate is even just 0.02%.

Vaccination Appointments Canceled

In France, no deaths have been reported so far. According to the latest report by Public Health France published this Thursday, France had 2,423 cases, half of them in Ile-de-France. 99% of confirmed sightings are of adult men and 96% of men who have sex with men (MSM).

About 3% of those infected had to be hospitalized, which is consistent with hospitalization rates seen in other Western countries affected by the epidemic.

The organization of the monkeypox vaccination campaign, reserved (for the time being) for homosexual and transsexual men with multiple partners, is hampered by the lack of available caregivers and probably also, although the government refuses to admit it, by missing dose. For this reason, this Thursday, the General Directorate of Health (DGS) decided to extend the period between the two doses of vaccine, initially set at 28 days.

Several people had their second dose appointment cancelled, particularly in the Lyon region, while the DGS had specified that appointments already set had to be kept. depending on the service Check news of the Liberation newspaper, the subjects whose appointments have been canceled have not yet been contacted again, despite the recommendations of the DGS.

Finally, monkey pox (monkeypox) should soon change its name. On June 14, Dr. Thedros Ghebreyesus, director of the WHO, indicated that the name of the disease would be changed. In fact, the term monkeypox is considered insulting (?) and inaccurate, since the virus is actually transmitted by rodents and not monkeys.

Two WHO committees are currently working on a new name and should give their verdict in the coming weeks: “monopox”, “mopox” Y “mpox” could be held. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) may also change the name of the virus, also called “monkey pox”.

However, the new name of the virus could be quite similar to the old one, since it should presumably be called “monkeypox orthopox virus”in order to avoid referencing problems of scientific articles that have already been published.

Nicholas Barbert

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *